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When Will Gold Prices Come Down
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Gold prices continue to trade lower after breaking out of a multi-month symmetrical triangle to the downside. The technical outlook remains weak and the price action suggests that a move below 1700 is possible in the coming weeks. The fundamental story also remains bearish, as rising real US yields – nominal Treasury yields minus inflationary expectations – remain higher. The “sell rally” perspective remains valid for the foreseeable future, plain and simple.
Historically, gold prices have a relationship with volatility unlike other asset classes. While other asset classes such as bonds and stocks do not like increased volatility – signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc. – gold tends to profit during periods of higher volatility. The double dip in gold volatility offers a warning signal about what’s next for gold prices.
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Gold volatility (as measured by Cboe’s Gold Volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks implied 1-month gold volatility derived from the GLD options chain) was trading at 19.45 at the time of writing. The 5-day correlation between GVZ and gold price is +0.27 while the 20-day correlation is -0.36. A week ago on July 5th, the 5-day correlation was -0.93 and the 20-day correlation was -0.60.
Gold prices fell significantly below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020 high/2021 low range at 1770.89 after a symmetrical triangle breakout was predicted. The technical structure is getting worse, and the momentum is taking on a sharp negative tone. Gold prices remain below the daily envelope of the 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs, which are lined up in consecutive bearish order. The daily MACD dip below its signal line is rising, while the daily Slow Stochastics is buried in oversold territory. Movement measured from the triangle calls for a decline towards 1680 over the coming weeks – right where the 2021 lows were found.
As we have noted many times before, “a break below the June low of 1805.21 would increase the chances of a sustained move below 1800 over the next few months.” This is indeed a play, in keeping with the above opinion that “the weekly timeframe continues to suggest a double top is forming for the price of gold, with two tops carved into the August 2020 and March 2022 highs.” A return to the area around the 2021 low, near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2015/2020 low at 1682.72, looks imminent.
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Gold: Retail data shows 84.40% net long traders and a long to short ratio of 5.41 to 1. The number of net long traders is 2.10% lower than yesterday and 1.80% higher last week, while is there. the number of net-short traders is 11.27% higher than yesterday and 1.76% higher than last week.
We tend to take a contrarian view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net long suggests that gold prices could continue to fall.
The position is less net debt than yesterday, but more net debt than last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent swings gives us a more mixed trade bias for gold.
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By checking the box below, you confirm that you are not a resident of the United States. Gold has always been a safe haven for investors. Low volatility makes it a reliable investment option. Shiny metal has an important place in Indian homes. Gold in India is not just an investment but a tradition. It does not only mean wealth but is also a matter of prestige for many Indians. Indian festivals and weddings are incomplete without exchanging gold. It has dominated investments in equity and real estate because it is less exposed to risk and has relatively better returns.
Gold prices have been falling since the end of January 2021. Gold rates have fallen in all major cities of India. On the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), gold fell by Rs 457 to Rs 46,390 per 10 grams, after the government announced a cut in import duties on the precious metal. Namely, the customs duty on gold and silver was reduced to 7.5%. So far, gold is down over 2% and has fallen over Rs 7000 from its all-time high in August last year. In previous trade, the precious metal ended at Rs 46,847 per 10 grams after falling by Rs 661.
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Globally, gold prices rose to $1,830 from $2,200. Gold is traded against the US dollar. As the dollar rises, the price of gold falls because gold becomes expensive in other currencies. Political and economic activity in the United States has paved the way for the appreciation of the US dollar. The price of gold and the US dollar is inversely proportional, because the dollar dominates the yellow metal. When the value of the dollar increases against other currencies around the world, the price of gold tends to fall in US dollar terms. A fall in the dollar increases the value of currencies in other countries, including the prices of commodities such as gold which causes the price of gold to rise and vice versa.
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Around the world, gold is seen as a commodity with inherent value. Gold remains, and will continue to remain, valuable because of its rarity and ability to create jewelry and other items. It has also been an investment option for many investors. Unlike any other commodity, gold is heavily influenced by movements in the economy. Throughout history, the price of gold seems to counter the fluctuations of the economic cycle.
World gold reserves are recorded at 33,000 tons, which is almost a fifth of the total amount of mined gold. In the last decade, many national banks have become direct buyers of gold reserves.
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Central banks hold gold reserves for several reasons: to mitigate risk, to protect against inflation, and to promote economic stability. According to a report published by the World Gold Council, central banks bought 668 tons of gold in 2019.
The Central Bank of America is said to have the largest gold reserves with 8,133 tons of gold in its vaults, worth $10.9 billion. The Reserve Bank of India is ninth in the list of the largest central banks holding gold reserves. India increased its gold reserves by 22.7 tonnes in 2020 and today holds 668 tonnes of the yellow metal in its vaults.
How oil price fluctuations affect the economy. Oil prices fluctuate rapidly in response to new cycles, political changes and fluctuations in world trade and this affects the economy in certain ways. The recent move in oil prices was fueled by the number. in
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